Free Daily Oddsline
Download the daily file from Noon each day at:
We've been experimenting with automatically generated oddslines for a while at Betwise, in fact that was the premise of the book Automatic Exchange Betting, written back in 2007.
What is an oddsline? Simple, it's a set of prices for any given race, just as you would find with a bookmaker or betting exchange, but ideally with the chance or probability for each contender being as close to the actual chance (or probability) each horse has of winning the race. The difference between bookmaker prices and the Betwise oddsline (or any "fair" oddsline) is that a fair oddsline adds up to 100% probability, whereas a bookmaker will build in a margin of profit across all the odds on offer (or overround). Moreover, a bookmaker will also adjust prices based on weight of money for each contender. Exchange prices are similar, but the prices are simply a function of weight of money, with the Exchange taking a commission. The more competitive a market on an Exchange, in theory the closer to a "fair" book - minus the commission.
The art of bookmaking involves creating such prices for each contender from scratch - or creating the "tissue" based on knowledge of the market, then adjusting the prices according to weight of money (with more attention being paid to "smart" money).
However, in the age of Artificial Intelligence, both bookmaker and punter can do better. Or can they? The Betwise Oddsline is automated every day, taking into account the fundamental chance of each horse, using past form from the Smartform database, as well as Betfair prices.
To automate an oddsline, there is usually a combination of a machine learning algorithm to make predictions based on past data, some element of factoring in the probabilities from the market (to represent the element of weight of money), and last but not least, an algorithm to ensure that the predictions from the oddsline are relatable to the odds on offer. In other words, that the odds from the oddsline are realistic and sum to 100%.
Machine learning and artificial intelligence is all the rage now, but it isn't that new. Whether expert opinion or machine learning is used to form your view, Smartform was created for bettors who value the ability to use data for gaining a personal edge of this nature.
The end use is the same for either an automated or "expert" oddsline - if a any horse’s odds are higher than what the "fair" odds should be then that may be worth a bet, if the horse's odds are lower, conversely, then the horse may be worth laying.
At least that is the theory. In practice, there are a million things that can go wrong!
While lockdown was in progress, we were busy creating an automated public oddsline, a free version of the one that we've been developing for a while, that you can find here every day before Noon. Feel free to download, review and even use at your own risk. In time we'll also be blogging about the best value picks from the oddsline on a daily basis. We welcome comments and questions, so ask away.